Rail Freight Pressure Report · Issue 1

Week ending September 26, 2026

Diesel at $6.53 just repriced every truck lane in the country, and every railroad's October fuel surcharge with it.

1. The number that moved everything

$6.529
US on-highway diesel, 2026-09-22. +24.4¢ on the week, +$2.78 on the year.
$6.177
Gulf Coast
$6.680
Midwest

Source: EIA weekly on-highway diesel

Rail fuel surcharges run on a two-month lag to this number, so October's factors below reflect August diesel, and November will step again. Truck reprices the same week.

2. Truck: spot rates versus a year ago

+29%
Flatbed linehaul, year over year, week of Sept 13-19
+33%
Van linehaul, year over year
+38%
Reefer linehaul, year over year
$3.27
Southeast outbound flatbed, $/mi, highest of the top ten origin regions (Sept 1)

DAT's forecast for late October puts flatbed linehaul at $2.55 a mile against $2.05 a year ago, and van at $2.15 against $1.69. Load posts hit 2.9 million, +16% week over week.

Source: DAT Truckload Market Report via AJOT; DAT flatbed report Sept 1

3. Rail fuel surcharge factors in effect for October

Cents per loaded mile, carload mileage programs, factors effective October 1 unless noted. Public program shown for CSX (8662); the contract program (8661) runs 86 cents on a $2.00 strike.

RailroadOctober ¢/miSeptember ¢/miChangeProgram basis
UP6858+101c/mi per 5c/gal HDF over $2.30
BNSF6050+101c/mi per 5c/gal HDF over $2.50
NS7562+131c/mi per 4c/gal HDF over $2.50
CSX (8662)4331+121c/mi per 4c/gal HDF over $3.749
CN (7403, US)76.264.2+120.6c/mi per 2.5c/gal HDF over $2.30
CPKC (9700)75.562+13.5bi-weekly OHD table; Sept 16-30 period shown

Source: Carrier fuel surcharge pages; Steel Wheel FSC tracker

September diesel is averaging above August, so November factors will step up again for every road on a two-month lag. The size is not published yet.

4. Rail volume: growing, not constrained

234,207
US carloads, week ending September 19, 2026 (+2.4% y/y)
301,456
Intermodal units (+6.9% y/y)
+4.9%
Total traffic, year over year; year to date carloads +2.7%, intermodal +4.1%
Up mostDown most
Metallic ores and metals: +3,073 cars, +15.1%Coal: -1,889 cars, -3.1%
Nonmetallic minerals: +2,209 cars, +7.0%Grain: -1,778 cars, -7.7%
Petroleum and products: +1,326 cars, +12.5%Motor vehicles and parts: -137 cars, -0.8%

Source: AAR weekly rail traffic

5. Grain and railcars

Shuttle cars in the secondary market bid $525 a car over tariff for September 17 GTR, September delivery; non-shuttle $113 over. Class I grain tariffs step up in October: BNSF +$200 per car on most PNW origins, UP +$225, CPKC +$225, CN +$275 in September and +$330 from October to December 1 (USDA GTR).

Railcar leasing: GATX's Q2 2026 index shows renewals repricing +16.8% above expiring rates on 54-month terms at 98.0% utilization. Q3 results expected late October.

Sources: USDA Grain Transportation Report · GATX Q2 2026 results

6. Regulatory calendar

UP-NS merger, STB docket FD 36873. Summary-denial motions from BNSF, CSX and a shipper coalition were denied September 18. Notices of intent to participate are due September 30. Comments on the merits are due November 18, replies February 16, 2027. If your traffic touches NS and reaches UP or BNSF through New Orleans, Memphis or Meridian, the comment window is where gateway protections get asked for. Source

Reciprocal switching. The STB's January proposal to repeal the 2024 reciprocal switching rules (Part 1144) has closed comments; no final decision as of this issue. The 2024 inadequate-service rule remains on the books. Source

Section 232 wood products. Hardwood timber and lumber review due to the President October 1. Upholstered furniture to 30% and cabinets and vanities to 50% on January 1, 2027. Softwood lumber stays at 10%. Source

7. Embargoes and service

UP: UP000526: GT Logistics, Williams and Port Arthur, TX. Congestion, all commodities, permits through the embargoed party. The only UP embargo listed this week. List

8. Lane of the week

Laurel, MS to Columbus, OH, 809 miles, Southern yellow pine lumber.

Truck $/tonRail $/ton, incl. dray and fuelDifferenceAt 12 loads a month
$117.67$88.42$29.25 per ton$7,723 a month

Illustrative lane, not a client. Truck at $3.20 a mile, about the Southeast flatbed spot level; rail as a single carload on NS with a 25-mile dray at each end and the October fuel surcharge factor. Indicative estimate from published tariff structures, not a quote.

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Every figure above is quoted from the named public source as of the date shown. Rail costs in the lane example are indicative estimates from published tariff structures and current fuel surcharge factors, not binding rates. Steel Wheel Logistics is a rail logistics intermediary, not a railroad. Published September 28, 2026. All issues.